Results from the “Climate Moment 2020” Modeling

Since the Paris Climate Conference in 2015, we have been working with KnowlEdge srl to track country progress towards emission reduction targets set at COP21. As the 5-year anniversary of COP21 approaches, we are releasing a new paper describing where countries stand today.

This new paper contains profiles for 11 countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, United Kingdom and the United States. For each country, we explain its potential at emission reductions based on a “low carbon scenario” post-COP21; the actual performance; and reasons for divergences between their potential and actual performance.

Some key takeaways from our research:

  • Only 4 of the 11 countries analyzed – Brazil, China, India and Korea – over-performed the low carbon scenario simulated for their market in 2015. The paper offers explanations for this over-performance, as well as for countries that fell short of their low carbon scenario.
  • Every country – with the exception of Indonesia and the United States – has accelerated the transition to low carbon in the past few years, when compared to the decade proceeding 2015 (i.e. 2005-2015). Learn more about this GDP Carbon Intensity Ratio here.
  • All 11 countries will need to reduce the carbon intensity of their economies significantly to achieve NDCs targeting 2030, with Canada (-56%) and China (-51%) having the most work to do.
  • Our Insights from the 2010s offer background on the policy and market dynamics that have supported or hindered country progress.

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