Since the Paris Climate Conference in 2015, we have been working with KnowlEdge srl to track country progress towards emission reduction targets set at COP21. As the 5-year anniversary of COP21 approaches, we are releasing a new paper describing where countries stand today.
This new paper contains profiles for 11 countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, United Kingdom and the United States. For each country, we explain its potential at emission reductions based on a “low carbon scenario” post-COP21; the actual performance; and reasons for divergences between their potential and actual performance.
Only 4 of the 11 countries analyzed – Brazil, China, India and Korea – over-performed the low carbon scenario simulated for their market in 2015. The paper offers explanations for this over-performance, as well as for countries that fell short of their low carbon scenario.
Every country – with the exception of Indonesia and the United States – has accelerated the transition to low carbon in the past few years, when compared to the decade proceeding 2015 (i.e. 2005-2015). Learn more about this GDP Carbon Intensity Ratio here.
All 11 countries will need to reduce the carbon intensity of their economies significantly to achieve NDCs targeting 2030, with Canada (-56%) and China (-51%) having the most work to do.
Our Insights from the 2010s offer background on the policy and market dynamics that have supported or hindered country progress.
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