DUAL CITIZEN

INTRODUCTION

Investors, businesses and governments continue to work towards decarbonizing future growth in the global economy. This is because carbon intensive growth threatens the long-term stability of global markets. But as the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is now 5 years old, it is time to take stock of what progress has been made towards emission reduction targets, the factors driving or inhibiting progress, and the opportunities for green investment, policy innovation and business formation in the 2020s.

In 2015, we built a market-driven model to provide answers to these questions, and in 2020 we are pleased to release an updated presentation of the results. Titled "The Climate Moment: Anticipating New Energy Markets, Investment Risks and Opportunities & Jobs in the Low Carbon Economy," the original study published in 2015 was an in-depth analysis of 11 of the largest carbon markets in the world, plus a special section on France. For each market, we use emission reduction pledges to the Paris Climate Conference (called INDCs in UN-speak) to calculate the INDC-related investment required, payback periods, avoided costs, energy sector winners and losers and employment impacts. In addition to summarizing these data in a user-friendly presentation, the study includes 50 original research insights revealing tangible policy, investment and business trends in each country for readers to be aware of.

In 2020, we are releasing a new paper where the model has been updated with actual emissions performance between 2015-2018 as well as actual GDP and population growth, energy demand and other factors. By joining real data from this three-year period with our model and revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030, we can show what type of additional ambition and interventions will be required for each country to reach its target. This system-wide perspective is particularly valuable as the COP26 approaches in 2021 and countries will be tasked to increase their ambition and commitments.

The 11 markets covered in the model and associated studies from 2015 and 2020 are: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Korea, United Kingdom and the United States.

Click here to learn more about how this model and the insights it provides can be customized to specific client assignments. Click here to sign up for future email updates related to this work.

This study is a joint publication between Dual Citizen LLC (Jeremy Tamanini) and KnowlEdge Srl (Dr. Andrea M. Bassi), a consultancy providing integrated modeling to inform decision-making. Other contributors include Marcus Andersson (Tendensor International), Marco Guzzetti (Research Analyst), James King (Research Analyst), Riccardo Mastini (Research Analyst) and Julieth Valenciano (Research Analyst).